Issue #004 · March 2026 thefinalthird.app
The Final Third
Premier League & World Football · Every Tuesday

This week: the sleeping giant of North American football, the two corruption cases quietly destroying the game's credibility, and why you cannot trade a footballer like an NBA player.
01 Liga MX's Big Moment
02 Football's Corruption Problem
03 Why Football Has No Trades

Story One · Global Football

The League America Already Watches — It Just Does Not Know It Yet

Liga MX is the most-watched football league in the United States. It has 45 million Mexicans living inside its biggest market. The 2026 World Cup is being played in its backyard. The question is no longer whether it has potential. The question is whether it knows what to do with it.

In 2019, the most-watched club football match on American television was not a Champions League final. It was not a Premier League game. It was not an El Clásico. It was the second leg of the Liga MX Apertura final between Club América and Monterrey — a match that drew 3.3 million viewers in the United States. More than the UEFA Champions League final that same year. In the United States. More people watched two Mexican clubs play a league final than watched the biggest club match in European football.

This is the central paradox of Liga MX. It is simultaneously the most-watched football league in the richest country on earth and one of the most structurally underdeveloped major leagues in global football. The audience exists. The passion exists. The geographic and cultural advantage over every European league exists in a way that cannot be manufactured or bought. What has been missing is the infrastructure to convert that attention into revenue that can compete with the Premier League, La Liga, or the Bundesliga.

45M
Mexicans living in USA
3.3M
US viewers, 2019 Liga MX final
$392M
Current annual TV rights value

The numbers tell the story bluntly. Liga MX currently generates approximately $392 million per year in broadcast revenue across all markets. The Premier League generates $4.8 billion. Both leagues have significant American audiences. One of them has been selling its rights collectively, professionally, and globally for thirty years. The other has, until very recently, allowed individual clubs to sell their own broadcast rights in a fragmented system that has cost the league hundreds of millions of dollars in negotiating power.

"There are 45 million Mexicans in America. We never think about this number. We just think, 'Oh yeah, there are many Mexicans.' But that's the same number of people as the whole of Spain."

That is changing. Beginning in 2028, Liga MX is transitioning to a centralised broadcast rights model — the same structural shift that transformed La Liga's value by over 100% within three years of its implementation in 2016. Projections suggest centralised rights could grow total broadcast value from $392 million to approximately $950 million. That is still a fraction of Premier League money. But it is a different conversation entirely from where the league currently sits.

Annual Broadcast Revenue — Global Comparison
USD BILLIONS · 2025–26 SEASON
*Liga MX projected post-centralisation value shown as target

The 2026 World Cup is the catalyst everyone is watching. Mexico co-hosts 13 matches across Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara — the first time the country has been on the world stage in 40 years. Historical data from previous tournaments suggests a 15% or more increase in domestic football engagement following a home World Cup. For Liga MX, this represents a once-in-a-generation window to convert casual World Cup interest into long-term club support, and casual club support into international broadcast subscribers.

European clubs have recognised this. Chelsea, Real Madrid, Barcelona and dozens of other clubs now schedule pre-season tours through Mexico and the American Southwest not out of charity but out of commercial calculation — the Hispanic American market is the fastest-growing consumer segment in the United States, and Mexican football is its primary sporting identity. The irony is that these European tours are essentially advertising campaigns for Liga MX's own product. They are building the appetite. Liga MX needs to be the one that feeds it.

What Liga MX has

The most loyal football audience in North America. Geographic proximity to 45 million Mexican-Americans. A World Cup window in 2026. A centralised rights deal coming in 2028. US investor interest including Apollo Global at $1.25 billion.

What Liga MX needs

A global streaming deal with a single platform — not fragmented across Univision, Telemundo and cable. English-language coverage to reach non-Hispanic American viewers. A competitive product that retains its best players rather than losing them to Europe at 22.

What makes Liga MX genuinely different from Brazil or Argentina is that its best players largely stay. Competitive domestic salaries, massive home attendances, and a cultural identity built around local clubs mean that Mexican footballers do not drain out of the league the way South American talent does. The players who do leave for Europe — Hirving Lozano, Edson Álvarez, Santiago Giménez — are exceptions, not the rule. This is actually remarkable. Liga MX has built a product that its own stars want to remain part of. The puzzle is why that loyalty and that audience has not yet translated into revenue that reflects it. A league that retains its talent and fills its stadiums but still generates a fraction of European broadcast money is not a talent problem. It is a commercial infrastructure problem — and that is a much more solvable one.

The Verdict

Liga MX has the audience, the culture, the geography, and the 2026 tailwind. What it has lacked is the structural discipline to monetise any of it at scale. The centralised rights deal in 2028 is the most important decision the league will make in its history. If it executes correctly, the gap between Liga MX and the Premier League in the American market could close faster than anyone in European football currently expects. If it fragments again, another decade passes and the opportunity goes with it.


Story Two · Integrity

Two Cases, One Question: Does Anyone Actually Run This Sport?

Barcelona paid €8.4 million to a referee official over 17 years. Manchester City face 130 charges of financial misconduct spanning a decade. Both cases are still unresolved. Both expose the same thing — a governing structure that either cannot or will not police the people it is meant to govern.

The Negreira case began with a simple question. Why did FC Barcelona pay €8.4 million over seventeen years to companies linked to José María Enríquez Negreira — the former vice president of Spain's refereeing committee — for reports that their own coaching staff say they never received and never used? Barcelona's answer is that Negreira provided legitimate consultancy on referee tendencies and youth scouting. Critics — including Real Madrid, who have joined the case as a private prosecutor — argue that the only logical explanation for payments of that scale, over that duration, to a man in that position, is an attempt to influence the environment in which Spanish refereeing decisions were made.

Neither side has yet been proven right. What has been proven is that Barcelona paid a man in a position of authority over referees for nearly two decades, that the payments were structured through shell companies, that the reports supposedly produced as justification either no longer exist or were never delivered, and that across the period in question, Barcelona won four Champions Leagues, eight La Liga titles, and six Copa del Rey trophies.

Key Facts · Negreira Case

€8.4 million paid to Negreira-linked companies between 2001 and 2018. Two former Barcelona presidents — Rosell and Bartomeu — have testified in court. Direct bribery charges were dismissed in 2024, but sporting corruption charges remain active. Real Madrid is a private prosecutor in the case. The investigation is expected to continue into 2026.

The Manchester City situation operates in a different jurisdiction but raises the same fundamental question. In February 2023, the Premier League charged City with 130 violations of financial rules spanning the period from 2009 to 2018. The charges include alleged failures to provide accurate financial information, alleged breaches of player and manager remuneration rules, and alleged failures to comply with UEFA financial fair play regulations. The case was referred to an independent commission. That commission heard evidence through 2024. It is now February 2026. There is no verdict. There is no timeline for a verdict. There is no public explanation for why it is taking this long.

Case Club Allegation Status
Negreira Barcelona Payments to referee official, €8.4m over 17 years Ongoing · 2026
115/130 Charges Man City 130 financial rule violations, 2009–2018 No verdict · 3 years
Calciopoli Juventus Referee manipulation, phone tapping Resolved · 2006

The Calciopoli comparison is instructive. In 2006, Italian football's refereeing scandal was uncovered, investigated, and resolved in a single season. Juventus were relegated. Several clubs had points deducted. The speed was brutal, but it was decisive. Football — and Juventus — recovered. The uncertainty lasted months, not years. In both the Negreira case and the City charges, the same decisiveness has been absent. Cases that began in 2023 are entering their fourth year without resolution. The damage to football's credibility compounds with every month that passes without an answer.

"It is possible that some clubs were relegated because of this. How can we forget the biggest scandal football has ever seen?"
— Florentino Pérez, December 2025

The reputational effect of unresolved corruption cases is different from — and in some ways worse than — the effect of proven guilt. When a verdict arrives, football can respond, punish, and move forward. When cases drag indefinitely, every match involving the clubs under investigation carries a shadow that no amount of VAR or goal-line technology can remove. Every City title won since 2009 is contested. Every Barcelona trophy from 2001 to 2018 is questioned. The uncertainty is the damage.

For the sport's global credibility — particularly in markets like the United States and Asia where football is still building its audience — this matters more than it might in established markets. New fans are not invested in the history. They are deciding whether to invest in the product. Two of the sport's most globally recognisable clubs operating under unresolved corruption allegations is not a neutral backdrop against which to make that case.

The Verdict

The Negreira case and the City charges are different in their specifics but identical in their implication — football's governing bodies move too slowly, communicate too little, and have demonstrated no urgency about resolving either. The sport can survive corruption. It has survived it before. What it cannot survive indefinitely is the appearance that corruption has no real consequences. Every month without a verdict is a statement. It just may not be the one the governing bodies intend to make.


Story Three · The Business of Football

Why You Can Buy a Footballer But Not Trade One

Every American sports fan asks the same question when they encounter football's transfer market: why can't teams just trade players? The answer goes back to 1893, a concept called registration, and the idea that a football club can own a human being's right to work.

In the NBA, if the Los Angeles Lakers want LeBron James and he plays for the Golden State Warriors, they propose a trade. The Warriors assess what they would receive in return — other players, draft picks, cash — and decide whether it is worth doing. If both sides agree, James moves. He has no choice in the matter unless his contract includes a no-trade clause. He is, in the language of American sports, an asset to be moved. In football, if Arsenal want Erling Haaland, they must first pay Manchester City a transfer fee — a sum that compensates City for releasing Haaland from his contract early. Then, and only then, can they approach Haaland himself to discuss personal terms. If Haaland says no, the deal is dead. The fee goes nowhere. The player stays.

These are not just different administrative systems. They represent fundamentally different philosophies about the relationship between a professional athlete and the institution that employs them. Understanding why football works the way it does requires going back not to modern contract law but to Victorian England, a team called Aston Villa, and a player called Kingaby who could not get a job.

1888
The Football League is founded. Clubs quickly realise that without rules preventing player movement, wealthy clubs will simply poach the best players from smaller ones. The era of player registration begins — a system where clubs control a player's right to compete, not just their employment.
1893
The retain-and-transfer system is introduced. Clubs can keep a player's registration even after his contract expires. This means a player without a contract still cannot join another club unless his current club agrees — and sets a fee. A player can be effectively unemployed but still legally tied to a club.
1912
The Kingaby case. Aston Villa place player Kingaby on their retained list with no intention of offering him a new contract. He cannot play for any other Football League club. He cannot earn a living. He loses his legal challenge. The retain-and-transfer system is upheld as lawful.
1963
George Eastham wins in court. Newcastle United try to block Eastham from joining Arsenal. The High Court rules the retain-and-transfer system is an unreasonable restraint of trade. The system is reformed — but the principle of transfer fees for contracted players survives intact.
1995
The Bosman ruling changes everything. The European Court of Justice rules that clubs cannot demand transfer fees for out-of-contract players moving within the EU. Free agency arrives in football — but only for players at the end of their contracts. Mid-contract transfers still require fees.
2025
Premier League clubs spend $4 billion in a single summer. The transfer fee system — born from a Victorian attempt to stop player poaching — now generates the largest market in global sport. The player still has to say yes. The club still sets the price.

The crucial difference between the football transfer system and the American trade system comes down to one word: consent. In the NFL, NBA, and MLB, a player under contract can be moved to any team at any time without their agreement, provided the trade satisfies salary cap requirements. In football, a player must personally agree to any transfer. A club can accept a fee, but if the player does not want to move, the deal collapses. This is why you regularly see situations where a club accepts £80 million for a player who then refuses to leave — something structurally impossible in American sports.

The American trade model

The team owns the contract. A player can be moved without consent. Trades balance salary cap obligations between clubs. Draft picks are currency. Players can negotiate no-trade clauses but these are rare and expensive to secure.

The football transfer model

The club owns the registration. Transfer fees compensate for releasing a player from contract early. The player must consent to any move. Wages are negotiated independently. There is no draft system — clubs scout and develop their own talent or pay to acquire others'.

Why does football not simply adopt the American model? The short answer is that it tried — and was stopped by its own players. The Bosman ruling established that out-of-contract players have the right to move freely. Any attempt to implement a draft system or forced trades in European football would face immediate legal challenge under EU employment law, which treats professional athletes as workers with the same rights as any other employee. An NBA-style trade — moving a player without consent — would constitute a breach of employment contract in most European jurisdictions.

There is also a deeper cultural reason. European football clubs, unlike American franchises, do not operate within closed leagues with fixed memberships. Promotion and relegation means that any club can, theoretically, rise from the bottom of the pyramid to the top. The transfer fee system — in which clubs can sell players and reinvest that money in the squad — is the primary mechanism through which smaller clubs fund their own growth. Southampton selling Gareth Bale to Tottenham for £10 million in 2007 gave them the capital to develop the next generation. Tottenham selling Bale to Real Madrid for £85 million in 2013 funded their own rebuild. Remove transfer fees and you remove the financial lifeblood of every club outside the top twenty.

"Remove transfer fees and you remove the financial lifeblood of every club outside the top twenty."

The system is not perfect. Transfer fees have become so inflated that only the wealthiest clubs can meaningfully participate in the market for elite players. Agent fees compound the cost at every transaction. The gap between clubs that can buy and those that can only sell grows wider every cycle. But the alternative — a closed league with trades and a draft — would require dismantling not just the transfer market but the entire architecture of European football: promotion, relegation, UEFA competitions, and the legal rights of players as workers. Nobody is about to do that for the sake of a tidier market structure.

The Verdict

Football cannot trade players the way the NBA does because football players are employees, not franchised assets. The system that emerged from Victorian England was never designed to produce a $4 billion summer market — it was designed to stop clubs poaching each other's best players. It has evolved into something far more complex, far more expensive, and far more consequential than anyone in 1893 could have imagined. It is also, for all its flaws, the system that keeps a small club in Portugal dreaming that selling their best player might one day pay for the squad that wins the league. That dream is worth more to global football than a cleaner spreadsheet.