What Actually Happens to Liverpool Without Champions League Football

Liverpool are the defending Premier League champions. Last season they were untouchable. This season, Arne Slot's side sit sixth, four points outside the top five, and the question nobody at Anfield wants to answer out loud is now unavoidable: what if they do not make it?

The maths still give them a chance. They need roughly 27 points from 13 games -- an average of 2.08 per game. Their current average this season is 1.56. They need to be significantly better than they have been for three months straight, while Chelsea and Manchester United both stumble. Possible. Not likely.

The Money

Champions League participation brings a club a baseline of around 50-60 million euros before a single match is played, just for being there. Win a few games, go deep into the knockout rounds, and that number doubles. Miss out and you get nothing. For a club whose entire financial model is built on competing at the top table of European football, that is a significant hole. The wage bill does not shrink when the revenue does.

The summer transfer window becomes immediately harder. Agents know. Players know. When Liverpool come calling for a top target and there is no Champions League football on offer, the conversation changes. They can still recruit -- they did it before Klopp rebuilt the club -- but the leverage disappears overnight.

The Isak Problem

In September, Liverpool broke the British transfer record to sign Alexander Isak for 125 million pounds. He is 26 years old. He needs to be playing in the Champions League to stay motivated, to grow, and frankly, to justify that fee to himself. One year in the Europa League is manageable. A second would raise serious questions about his future at the club.

Slot's Position

Arne Slot arrived as the man to continue the Klopp era without disruption. The first season was excellent. This one has been turbulent. Missing the Champions League in year two would not get him sacked -- not immediately -- but it would fundamentally change the conversation around his future. The narrative shifts from continuation to decline.

The Relegation Battle Is More Chaotic Than Anyone Predicted

Before the season every pundit made the same prediction: Wolves, Burnley, and one of Leeds or Sunderland would go down. Clean and simple. Except it has not been clean or simple at all.

Wolves have been historically bad -- the worst start in Premier League history, one win all season. Bookmakers have suspended betting on their relegation because it is already a formality. Burnley are not far behind. But the real story is Tottenham.

How Did Spurs Get Here?

Thomas Frank left Brentford -- a club he had built into a legitimate top-seven force -- to take the Spurs job. He lasted less than five months. Two wins in 17 league games. The club that won the Europa League last season and had Champions League ambitions is now 16th, and has just appointed Igor Tudor as their fourth manager of the calendar year.

The irony is sharp. Frank was brilliant at Brentford because he had full control of a football department built around him. At Spurs he walked into a dysfunctional ownership structure, a squad that does not suit pressing football, and a fanbase that had already lost patience. Wrong job, wrong time.

And Sunderland, the promoted side everyone expected to struggle, sit comfortably in the table with 36 points. Regis Le Bris has done a remarkable job in their first season back. That is the other half of the story -- the team everyone expected to go down has been one of the season's genuine surprises.

Wrexham vs Chelsea: The Tie Nobody Could Script

The FA Cup fifth round draw delivered exactly the kind of fixture that reminds you why this competition still matters. Wrexham, the Welsh club owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, pushing for a fourth consecutive promotion, will host Chelsea at the Racecourse Ground on the weekend of March 7-8.

They did not stumble into this round. They beat Nottingham Forest -- a Premier League club -- on penalties after a 3-3 draw. Then beat Ipswich Town 1-0. Phil Parkinson's side are not a gimmick. They are a well-organised Championship club, currently eighth and fighting for a play-off spot that would take them to the Premier League for the first time in 27 years.

Why Chelsea Should Be Worried

Liam Rosenior has stabilised Chelsea since taking over from Enzo Maresca in January. They sit fifth and are genuine FA Cup contenders. But they will hate this draw. A trip to the Racecourse Ground, on an artificial occasion with cameras everywhere and the whole world supporting the other team, is exactly the type of fixture that goes wrong. Chelsea have lost three consecutive FA Cup finals. They need a trophy. Losing to a Championship club on a freezing March night in Wales would be a disaster.

765 Square Miles. Four Premier League Managers.

The province of Gipuzkoa, in the Basque Country of northern Spain, is the smallest province in the country. Its capital, San Sebastian, has fewer residents than Leeds. And yet right now, it is producing a higher concentration of elite football managers than anywhere else on the planet.

Usurbil, Hondarribia, and San Sebastian are all within 10 miles of each other. Arteta and Iraola played youth football together at Antiguoko. Arteta and Xabi Alonso -- who just won the Bundesliga with Leverkusen unbeaten -- were teammates as teenagers. Juanma Lillo, Guardiola's assistant at Manchester City, is also from Gipuzkoa. Julen Lopetegui, former Spain and Real Madrid boss, is from Asteasu, 14 miles away.

What Actually Explains It

Arteta once said it was the food, and he was not entirely joking. San Sebastian has the highest concentration of Michelin-starred restaurants per square metre in Europe. The Basque obsession with craft, precision, and taking basic things to an extraordinary level -- that applies to cooking and, apparently, to football management too.

But there are structural explanations. Athletic Club of Bilbao has operated a Basque-only player policy for over 125 years. Every player must be born in the Basque Country or have Basque roots. The result is a region where development, identity, and tactical intelligence matter more than simply buying in talent. Coaching has always been valued as a craft rather than a consolation prize for failed players.

Then there are the apprenticeships. Arteta spent three years as Guardiola's assistant before taking the Arsenal job. Alonso learned under Benitez, Mourinho, Ancelotti, and Guardiola. Iraola was shaped by Bielsa. These are not managers who got jobs because they were famous players. They are coaches who constructed their education with extraordinary care.

The Case That Will Not End

Manchester City were charged with 115 alleged financial rule breaches in February 2023. A private hearing concluded in December 2024. A verdict was widely expected within weeks. Guardiola publicly said he expected a decision in "around one month." That was over a year ago.

What the Punishments Could Look Like

The core allegation is that City received money from their Abu Dhabi ownership and disguised it as commercial sponsorship income -- essentially fraud against the Premier League's financial rules over nine years. Finance experts suggest a proportionate points deduction could be anywhere between 40 and 60 points. Applied to a single season, that means relegation. Applied across multiple seasons, it means years of competitive damage.

City's Response Has Been Remarkable

While the case grinds on, City have behaved as if the outcome is not a concern. Nearly 500 million pounds spent on transfers since December 2024. Erling Haaland signed a contract extension running until 2034. The Etihad is being expanded to 60,000 seats. Either they know something the rest of us do not, or this is an act of extraordinary confidence in their defence. Possibly both.